Central Stallions 0–5 Erchim: Result & Stats

Central Stallions

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Erchim

8/13/2023

Premier League · Round 2Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Central Stallions24%

×Draw17%

Erchim59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central StallionsExpected goals in this matchErchim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

3.08

Central Stallions

1.98

Erchim

3.08

Erchim creates 56% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 65 away

2.00

creates per match

2.74

3.42

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Central Stallions

2.00

Erchim

2.74

allows per match

Central Stallions

3.42

Erchim

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Stallions+0.00on par

Erchim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Stallions ↓

Erchim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Central Stallions or draw

41%

Central Stallions or Erchim

83%

Draw or Erchim

76%

Winning margin

Central Stallions wins by 2+

12%

Erchim wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Central Stallions 1+ goals

86%

Central Stallions 2+ goals

59%

Central Stallions 3+ goals

31%

Erchim 1+ goals

95%

Erchim 2+ goals

81%

Erchim 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Central Stallions (draw refunded)

29%

Erchim (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Stallions at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.42 · 38 matches

Erchim away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Stallions attack 2.00 + Erchim defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Erchim attack 2.74 + Central Stallions defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Central Stallions scores more

24%

level

17%

Erchim scores more

59%

Erchim at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff