Central SC 0–1 Sergipe: Result & Stats | Serie D

Central SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sergipe

Claudio Bahiano 83'

4/29/2018

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda (Caruaru, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Central SC45%

×Draw29%

Sergipe27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central SCExpected goals in this matchSergipe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.91

Central SC

1.27

Sergipe

0.91

Central SC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 51 away

1.29

creates per match

1.10

0.71

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Central SC

1.29

Sergipe

1.10

allows per match

Central SC

0.71

Sergipe

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central SC+0.00on par

Sergipe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central SC ↓

Sergipe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Central SC or draw

73%

Central SC or Sergipe

71%

Draw or Sergipe

55%

Winning margin

Central SC wins by 2+

20%

Sergipe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Central SC 1+ goals

72%

Central SC 2+ goals

36%

Central SC 3+ goals

14%

Sergipe 1+ goals

60%

Sergipe 2+ goals

23%

Sergipe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Central SC (draw refunded)

63%

Sergipe (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Sergipe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central SC attack 1.29 + Sergipe defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sergipe attack 1.10 + Central SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Central SC scores more

45%

level

29%

Sergipe scores more

27%

Central SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Jose Luciano← Douglas Carioca

46'

Paulo Fernando← Dudu

50'

Fabinho Cambalhota← Nino Guerreiro

55'

Rodney← Diogo

63'

Danilo Rios← Marcos

71'

Douglas Washington← Júnior Lemos

83'

Claudio Bahiano

Central

Sergipe

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mauro Fernandes

46'▲Jose Luciano←▼Douglas Carioca

46'▲Paulo Fernando←▼Dudu

71'▲Douglas Washington←▼Júnior Lemos

Central SC substitutes

LucianoFernandoWashingtonOliveiraDenisonGildoGraxaCostaIdevamIksonRanieriTadeu

Manager: Edmilson

50'▲Fabinho Cambalhota←▼Nino Guerreiro

55'▲Rodney←▼Diogo

63'▲Danilo Rios←▼Marcos

Sergipe substitutes

CambalhotaRodneyRiosBastosLulinhaMaxsuelHeverton

Serie D: Central SC 0–1 Sergipe

Sergipe beat Central SC 1-0 in Serie D on April 29, 2018.

Goals: Claudio Bahiano (83').

The match was played at Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda (Caruaru, Pernambuco).

Central SC vs Sergipe — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Central SC 0–1 Sergipe