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Central SC vs Santa Cruz RN — Serie D 2025

Central SC
Central SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Cruz RN
Santa Cruz RN
Augusto Potiguar 90'
7/6/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Central SC53%
×Draw26%
Santa Cruz RN21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central SC
1.53
Santa Cruz RN
0.86

Central SC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Central SC
0.93
Santa Cruz RN
1.00

allows per match

Central SC
0.73
Santa Cruz RN
2.13

finishing

Central SC+0.00on par
Santa Cruz RN+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central SC ↓

Santa Cruz RN →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Central SC or draw
79%
Central SC or Santa Cruz RN
74%
Draw or Santa Cruz RN
47%

Winning margin

Central SC wins by 2+
27%
Santa Cruz RN wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Central SC 1+ goals
78%
Central SC 2+ goals
45%
Central SC 3+ goals
20%
Santa Cruz RN 1+ goals
58%
Santa Cruz RN 2+ goals
21%
Santa Cruz RN 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Central SC (draw refunded)
71%
Santa Cruz RN (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central SC at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Santa Cruz RN away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central SC attack 0.93 + Santa Cruz RN defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Santa Cruz RN attack 1.00 + Central SC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Central SC scores more
53%
level
26%
Santa Cruz RN scores more
21%

Central SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
Augusto Potiguar
Central
Santa
Leandro Sena
Manager: Leandro Sena
Eugênio Gomes
Manager: Eugênio Gomes

Match Recap: Central SC vs Santa Cruz RN

Central SC beat Santa Cruz RN 1-0 in Serie D on July 6, 2025.

Goals: Augusto Potiguar (90').

The match was played at Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda in Caruaru, Pernambuco.