Central SC 3–0 Potiguar Mossoró: Result & Stats

Central SC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Potiguar Mossoró

Andrezinho 80'

Erivelto 75'

Philco 30'

6/8/2013

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Central SC54%

×Draw25%

Potiguar Mossoró21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central SCExpected goals in this matchPotiguar Mossoró

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.94

Central SC

1.65

Potiguar Mossoró

0.94

Central SC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

1.18

0.71

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Central SC

1.29

Potiguar Mossoró

1.18

allows per match

Central SC

0.71

Potiguar Mossoró

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central SC+0.00on par

Potiguar Mossoró+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central SC ↓

Potiguar Mossoró →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Central SC or draw

79%

Central SC or Potiguar Mossoró

75%

Draw or Potiguar Mossoró

46%

Winning margin

Central SC wins by 2+

29%

Potiguar Mossoró wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Central SC 1+ goals

81%

Central SC 2+ goals

49%

Central SC 3+ goals

23%

Potiguar Mossoró 1+ goals

61%

Potiguar Mossoró 2+ goals

24%

Potiguar Mossoró 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Central SC (draw refunded)

72%

Potiguar Mossoró (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Potiguar Mossoró away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central SC attack 1.29 + Potiguar Mossoró defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Potiguar Mossoró attack 1.18 + Central SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Central SC scores more

54%

level

25%

Potiguar Mossoró scores more

21%

Central SC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Philco

46'

Eduardo Rato← Genilson

69'

Erivelto← Philco

69'

Tiago Messias← Dinho

72'

Júnior← Ito

73'

Jorge Luiz← Luiz Fernando

75'

Erivelto

78'

Gustavo Henrique← Junior Maranhão

80'

Andrezinho

Central

Potiguar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Philco

⚽

Andrezinh

69'▲Erivelto←▼Philco

73'▲Jorge Luiz←▼Luiz Fernando

78'▲Gustavo Henrique←▼Junior Maranhão

Central SC substitutes

EriveltoLuizHenriquePereiraFernandinhoPimentaPupo

46'▲Eduardo Rato←▼Genilson

69'▲Tiago Messias←▼Dinho

72'▲Júnior←▼Ito

Potiguar Mossoró substitutes

RatoMessiasJúniorGilliardeRobertoRodriguinhoBerguinho