Central SC 3–0 Jacyobá: Result & Stats | Serie D

Central SC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jacyobá

Janderson 90'

Joelson 80'

Leandro Costa 2'

11/27/2020

Serie D · Round 14Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Central SC77%

×Draw14%

Jacyobá8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central SCExpected goals in this matchJacyobá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

0.78

Central SC

2.71

Jacyobá

0.78

Central SC creates 247% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

0.86

0.71

allows per match

4.14

creates per match

Central SC

1.29

Jacyobá

0.86

allows per match

Central SC

0.71

Jacyobá

4.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central SC+0.00on par

Jacyobá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central SC ↓

Jacyobá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Central SC or draw

92%

Central SC or Jacyobá

86%

Draw or Jacyobá

23%

Winning margin

Central SC wins by 2+

56%

Jacyobá wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Central SC 1+ goals

93%

Central SC 2+ goals

75%

Central SC 3+ goals

50%

Jacyobá 1+ goals

54%

Jacyobá 2+ goals

18%

Jacyobá 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Central SC (draw refunded)

90%

Jacyobá (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Jacyobá away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central SC attack 1.29 + Jacyobá defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 2.71

Jacyobá attack 0.86 + Central SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Central SC scores more

77%

level

14%

Jacyobá scores more

8%

Central SC at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Leandro Costa

59'

Lucas← Jose Marcos

66'

Adailson← Aruá

66'

Wendel← Evandro

73'

Fernando Pires← Hebert

73'

Joelson← Leandro Costa

80'

Joelson

85'

Gabriel Morbeck← Jeffinho

90'

Janderson

Central

Jacyobá

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Silvio Criciúma

66'▲Adailson←▼Aruá

66'▲Wendel←▼Evandro

73'▲Fernando Pires←▼Hebert

73'▲Joelson←▼Leandro Costa

85'▲Gabriel Morbeck←▼Jeffinho

Central SC substitutes

AdailsonWendelPiresJoelsonMorbeckRanderDaviCostaGideãoGleidsonPabloRenan

Manager: Laélson Lima

59'▲Lucas←▼Jose Marcos

Jacyobá substitutes

LucasDimasGermanoJonnyTelo