Central SC 2–2 AO Itabaiana: Result & Stats

Central SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AO Itabaiana

Leandro 65'

Leandro Costa 61'

Otavio 73', 45+5'

9/27/2020

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Central SC43%

×Draw29%

AO Itabaiana28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central SCExpected goals in this matchAO Itabaiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.94

Central SC

1.23

AO Itabaiana

0.94

Central SC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 36 away

1.29

creates per match

1.17

0.71

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Central SC

1.29

AO Itabaiana

1.17

allows per match

Central SC

0.71

AO Itabaiana

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central SC+0.00on par

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central SC ↓

AO Itabaiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Central SC or draw

72%

Central SC or AO Itabaiana

71%

Draw or AO Itabaiana

57%

Winning margin

Central SC wins by 2+

19%

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Central SC 1+ goals

71%

Central SC 2+ goals

35%

Central SC 3+ goals

13%

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals

61%

AO Itabaiana 2+ goals

24%

AO Itabaiana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Central SC (draw refunded)

60%

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

AO Itabaiana away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central SC attack 1.29 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

AO Itabaiana attack 1.17 + Central SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Central SC scores more

43%

level

29%

AO Itabaiana scores more

28%

Central SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+5'

Otavio

46'

Robson← Adailson

61'

Leandro Costa

65'

Leandro

70'

Euller← Leandro Costa

70'

Jeffinho← Leandro

70'

Fagner← Jacobina

70'

Pedro Henrique← Alex Sandre

73'

Otavio

78'

Joelson← Doda

78'

Renan← Janelson

80'

P. Koffi← Ila

86'

Geovani← Otavio

86'

Geovanio Batata← Birungueta

Central

AO

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Leandro

Lucas

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Silvio Criciúma

46'▲Robson←▼Adailson

70'▲Euller←▼Leandro Costa

70'▲Jeffinho←▼Leandro

78'▲Joelson←▼Doda

78'▲Renan←▼Janelson

Central SC substitutes

RobsonEullerJeffinhoJoelsonRenanGleidsonWendelHebertJerfessonRanderRangersonRobinho

Manager: Ferreira

70'▲Fagner←▼Jacobina

70'▲Pedro Henrique←▼Alex Sandre

80'▲P. Koffi←▼Ila

86'▲Geovani←▼Otavio

86'▲Geovanio Batata←▼Birungueta

AO Itabaiana substitutes

FagnerHenriqueKoffiGeovaniBatataAndrezonManoelWillian