Central Norte 1–0 Defensores de Belgrano VR

Central Norte

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Defensores de Belgrano VR

G. Lesman 56'

8/4/2024

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Round - 3Estadio Dr. Luis Güemes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Central Norte55%

×Draw26%

Defensores de Belgrano VR19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central NorteExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Belgrano VR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.78

Central Norte

1.51

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.78

Central Norte creates 94% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 115 away

1.69

creates per match

0.90

0.65

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Central Norte

1.69

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.90

allows per match

Central Norte

0.65

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Norte+0.00on par

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Norte ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Central Norte or draw

81%

Central Norte or Defensores de Belgrano VR

74%

Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR

45%

Winning margin

Central Norte wins by 2+

28%

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Central Norte 1+ goals

78%

Central Norte 2+ goals

44%

Central Norte 3+ goals

19%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

54%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

18%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Central Norte (draw refunded)

74%

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Norte at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.65 · 77 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Norte attack 1.69 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.51

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + Central Norte defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Central Norte scores more

55%

level

26%

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

19%

Central Norte at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Central Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

C. Chavarría← J. Carrizo

56'

G. Lesman

60'

M. Machado← F. Ciampichetti

65'

65'

78'

78'

79'

J. Bassani← R. Seratto

79'

I. Valsangiácomo← M. Jaime

85'

J. Bertacín← J. Cartechini

Central

Defensores

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lesman

▼

Blanco

Manager: V. Riggio

46'▲C. Chavarría←▼J. Carrizo

65'▲F. Romero←▼D. Gómez

65'▲P. Sanz←▼M. Sánchez

78'▲N. Genes←▼G. Lesman

78'▲D. Magno←▼E. Blanco

Central Norte substitutes

ChavarríaRomeroSanzGenesMagno

Manager: J. Iturrería

60'▲M. Machado←▼F. Ciampichetti

79'▲J. Bassani←▼R. Seratto

79'▲I. Valsangiácomo←▼M. Jaime

85'▲J. Bertacín←▼J. Cartechini

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

MachadoBassaniValsangiácomoBertacín

Match Recap: Central Norte vs Defensores de Belgrano VR

Central Norte beat Defensores de Belgrano VR 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on August 4, 2024.

Goals: G. Lesman (56').

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Luis Güemes in Salta, Provincia de Salta.

Central Norte vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Central Norte vs Defensores de Belgrano VR