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Central Norte vs CDJU Gualeguaychu — Torneo Federal A 2018

Central Norte
Central Norte
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CDJU Gualeguaychu
CDJU Gualeguaychu
1/26/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · North - 16Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena (Ciudad de Salta, Provincia de Salta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Central Norte60%
×Draw24%
CDJU Gualeguaychu15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Norte
1.64
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.68

Central Norte creates 141% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 56 away

creates per match

Central Norte
1.69
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.71

allows per match

Central Norte
0.65
CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.59

finishing

Central Norte+0.00on par
CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Norte ↓

CDJU Gualeguaychu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Central Norte or draw
85%
Central Norte or CDJU Gualeguaychu
76%
Draw or CDJU Gualeguaychu
40%

Winning margin

Central Norte wins by 2+
33%
CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Central Norte 1+ goals
81%
Central Norte 2+ goals
49%
Central Norte 3+ goals
23%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals
49%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals
15%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Central Norte (draw refunded)
80%
CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Norte at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.65 · 77 matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Norte attack 1.69 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 0.71 + Central Norte defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Central Norte scores more
60%
level
24%
CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more
15%

Central Norte at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Central Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Central Norte 2–0 CDJU Gualeguaychu

Central Norte beat CDJU Gualeguaychu 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena (Ciudad de Salta, Provincia de Salta).