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Central Norte vs Atletico Parana — Torneo Federal A 2018

Central Norte
Central Norte
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
8/6/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 23Estadio Dr. Luis Güemes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Central Norte61%
×Draw24%
Atletico Parana15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Norte
1.65
Atletico Parana
0.67

Central Norte creates 146% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 28 away

creates per match

Central Norte
1.69
Atletico Parana
0.68

allows per match

Central Norte
0.65
Atletico Parana
1.61

finishing

Central Norte+0.00on par
Atletico Parana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Norte ↓

Atletico Parana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Central Norte or draw
85%
Central Norte or Atletico Parana
76%
Draw or Atletico Parana
39%

Winning margin

Central Norte wins by 2+
34%
Atletico Parana wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Central Norte 1+ goals
81%
Central Norte 2+ goals
49%
Central Norte 3+ goals
23%
Atletico Parana 1+ goals
49%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
15%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Central Norte (draw refunded)
80%
Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Norte at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.65 · 77 matches

Atletico Parana away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Norte attack 1.69 + Atletico Parana defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atletico Parana attack 0.68 + Central Norte defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Central Norte scores more
61%
level
24%
Atletico Parana scores more
15%

Central Norte at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Central Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Norte vs Atletico Parana

Atletico Parana beat Central Norte 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Luis Güemes in Salta, Provincia de Salta.