Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Central Espanol vs Bella Vista — Segunda División 2026

Central Espanol
Central Espanol
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bella Vista
Bella Vista
7/20/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Parque Palermo (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Central Espanol47%
×Draw27%
Bella Vista26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Espanol
1.39
Bella Vista
0.95

Central Espanol creates 46% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 27 away

creates per match

Central Espanol
1.15
Bella Vista
0.85

allows per match

Central Espanol
1.04
Bella Vista
1.63

finishing

Central Espanol+0.00on par
Bella Vista+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Espanol ↓

Bella Vista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Central Espanol or draw
74%
Central Espanol or Bella Vista
73%
Draw or Bella Vista
53%

Winning margin

Central Espanol wins by 2+
23%
Bella Vista wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Central Espanol 1+ goals
75%
Central Espanol 2+ goals
40%
Central Espanol 3+ goals
16%
Bella Vista 1+ goals
61%
Bella Vista 2+ goals
25%
Bella Vista 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Central Espanol (draw refunded)
65%
Bella Vista (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Espanol at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Bella Vista away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Espanol attack 1.15 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bella Vista attack 0.85 + Central Espanol defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Central Espanol scores more
47%
level
27%
Bella Vista scores more
26%

Central Espanol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Central Espanol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Espanol vs Bella Vista

Bella Vista beat Central Espanol 2-1 in Segunda División on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Parque Palermo (Montevideo).