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Central Córdoba SdE Res. vs Tigre Res. — Reserve League 2022

Central Córdoba SdE Res.
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tigre Res.
Tigre Res.
8/15/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Central Córdoba SdE Res.39%
×Draw29%
Tigre Res.32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Córdoba SdE Res.
1.18
Tigre Res.
1.03

Central Córdoba SdE Res. creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

creates per match

Central Córdoba SdE Res.
1.10
Tigre Res.
0.89

allows per match

Central Córdoba SdE Res.
1.18
Tigre Res.
1.25

finishing

Central Córdoba SdE Res.+0.00on par
Tigre Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Córdoba SdE Res. ↓

Tigre Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Central Córdoba SdE Res. or draw
68%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. or Tigre Res.
71%
Draw or Tigre Res.
61%

Winning margin

Central Córdoba SdE Res. wins by 2+
17%
Tigre Res. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1+ goals
69%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. 2+ goals
33%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. 3+ goals
12%
Tigre Res. 1+ goals
64%
Tigre Res. 2+ goals
28%
Tigre Res. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Central Córdoba SdE Res. (draw refunded)
55%
Tigre Res. (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Córdoba SdE Res. at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Tigre Res. away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Córdoba SdE Res. attack 1.10 + Tigre Res. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tigre Res. attack 0.89 + Central Córdoba SdE Res. defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Central Córdoba SdE Res. scores more
39%
level
29%
Tigre Res. scores more
32%

Central Córdoba SdE Res. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Central Córdoba SdE Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Central Córdoba SdE Res. 0–1 Tigre Res.

Tigre Res. beat Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on August 15, 2024.