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Central Córdoba SdE Res. vs Talleres Córdoba Res. — Reserve League 2022

Central Córdoba SdE Res.
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Talleres Córdoba Res.
Talleres Córdoba Res.
2/8/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Central Córdoba SdE Res.37%
×Draw28%
Talleres Córdoba Res.35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Córdoba SdE Res.
1.18
Talleres Córdoba Res.
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

creates per match

Central Córdoba SdE Res.
1.10
Talleres Córdoba Res.
1.07

allows per match

Central Córdoba SdE Res.
1.18
Talleres Córdoba Res.
1.25

finishing

Central Córdoba SdE Res.+0.00on par
Talleres Córdoba Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Córdoba SdE Res. ↓

Talleres Córdoba Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Central Córdoba SdE Res. or draw
65%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. or Talleres Córdoba Res.
72%
Draw or Talleres Córdoba Res.
63%

Winning margin

Central Córdoba SdE Res. wins by 2+
16%
Talleres Córdoba Res. wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1+ goals
69%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. 2+ goals
33%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. 3+ goals
12%
Talleres Córdoba Res. 1+ goals
68%
Talleres Córdoba Res. 2+ goals
31%
Talleres Córdoba Res. 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Central Córdoba SdE Res. (draw refunded)
52%
Talleres Córdoba Res. (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Córdoba SdE Res. at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Talleres Córdoba Res. away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Córdoba SdE Res. attack 1.10 + Talleres Córdoba Res. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Talleres Córdoba Res. attack 1.07 + Central Córdoba SdE Res. defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Central Córdoba SdE Res. scores more
37%
level
28%
Talleres Córdoba Res. scores more
35%

Central Córdoba SdE Res. at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Central Córdoba SdE Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1 – 0 Talleres Córdoba Res.

Central Córdoba SdE Res. beat Talleres Córdoba Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on February 8, 2024.