Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1 Platense

Central Cordoba de Santiago

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

F. Baldassarra 74'

4/3/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 8Estadio Alfredo Terrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago45%

×Draw30%

Platense25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Cordoba de SantiagoExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.80

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.19

Platense

0.80

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 49% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

1.17

creates per match

0.73

0.87

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.17

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.87

Platense

1.21

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.13scores more

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw

75%

Central Cordoba de Santiago or Platense

70%

Draw or Platense

55%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

20%

Platense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

70%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

33%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

12%

Platense 1+ goals

55%

Platense 2+ goals

19%

Platense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

65%

Platense (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.87 · 20 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.17 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Platense attack 0.73 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

45%

level

30%

Platense scores more

25%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

N. Zalazar

Platense · D

7.7

Match Events

12'

24'

38'

45+1'

50'

52'

57'

H. López← J. Bay

59'

Carlo Lattanzio

64'

Hernan Lopez

65'

F. Cerro← J. Galeano

74'

J. Pereyra← T. Palacios

74'

P. Gerzel← N. Bertolo

74'

F. Baldassarra

80'

Milton Giménez

84'

N. Barrios← C. Lattanzio

84'

P. Argañaraz← L. Brochero

85'

C. Riaño← F. Andueza

86'

S. Callegari← F. Curuchet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralPlatense

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots7

4Corners4

20Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots7

2On Target1

8Off Target5

5Blocked1

10Inside Box2

5Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

349Total Passes347

248Accurate Passes248

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls13

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2