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Central Cordoba de Santiago vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
4/3/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago49%
×Draw29%
LDU de Quito22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.29
LDU de Quito
0.75

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.00
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.67
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw
78%
Central Cordoba de Santiago or LDU de Quito
71%
Draw or LDU de Quito
51%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
23%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
72%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
37%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
14%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
53%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
17%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
69%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.00 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
49%
level
29%
LDU de Quito scores more
22%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs LDU de Quito

Central Cordoba de Santiago and LDU de Quito drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero.