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Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
1/31/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago39%
×Draw27%
Atletico Tucuman34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.28
Atletico Tucuman
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.36
Atletico Tucuman
1.33

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.02
Atletico Tucuman
1.20

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.44scores more
Atletico Tucuman-0.76scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw
66%
Central Cordoba de Santiago or Atletico Tucuman
73%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
61%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
17%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
72%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
37%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
53%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 5 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.36 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.33 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
39%
level
27%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
34%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Profesional Argentina: Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–0 Atletico Tucuman

Central Cordoba de Santiago beat Atletico Tucuman 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on January 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero.