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Central Coast United vs SD Raiders — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Central Coast United
Central Coast United
FT
0 – 6
SD Raiders
SD Raiders
7/29/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 26Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Central Coast United25%
×Draw21%
SD Raiders54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast United
1.33
SD Raiders
2.04

SD Raiders creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

creates per match

Central Coast United
1.07
SD Raiders
1.62

allows per match

Central Coast United
2.47
SD Raiders
1.58

finishing

Central Coast United+0.00on par
SD Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast United ↓

SD Raiders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Central Coast United or draw
46%
Central Coast United or SD Raiders
79%
Draw or SD Raiders
75%

Winning margin

Central Coast United wins by 2+
10%
SD Raiders wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Central Coast United 1+ goals
74%
Central Coast United 2+ goals
38%
Central Coast United 3+ goals
15%
SD Raiders 1+ goals
87%
SD Raiders 2+ goals
60%
SD Raiders 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Central Coast United (draw refunded)
32%
SD Raiders (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

SD Raiders away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.58 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast United attack 1.07 + SD Raiders defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

SD Raiders attack 1.62 + Central Coast United defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Central Coast United scores more
25%
level
21%
SD Raiders scores more
54%

SD Raiders at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SD Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Coast United vs SD Raiders

SD Raiders beat Central Coast United 6-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.