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Central Coast United vs Rydalmere Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Central Coast United
Central Coast United
FT
2 – 1
Rydalmere Lions
Rydalmere Lions
8/19/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 29Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Central Coast United29%
×Draw22%
Rydalmere Lions49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast United
1.52
Rydalmere Lions
2.02

Rydalmere Lions creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

creates per match

Central Coast United
1.07
Rydalmere Lions
1.57

allows per match

Central Coast United
2.47
Rydalmere Lions
1.98

finishing

Central Coast United+0.00on par
Rydalmere Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast United ↓

Rydalmere Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Central Coast United or draw
51%
Central Coast United or Rydalmere Lions
78%
Draw or Rydalmere Lions
71%

Winning margin

Central Coast United wins by 2+
13%
Rydalmere Lions wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Central Coast United 1+ goals
78%
Central Coast United 2+ goals
45%
Central Coast United 3+ goals
20%
Rydalmere Lions 1+ goals
87%
Rydalmere Lions 2+ goals
60%
Rydalmere Lions 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Central Coast United (draw refunded)
37%
Rydalmere Lions (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Rydalmere Lions away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast United attack 1.07 + Rydalmere Lions defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rydalmere Lions attack 1.57 + Central Coast United defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Central Coast United scores more
29%
level
22%
Rydalmere Lions scores more
49%

Rydalmere Lions at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rydalmere Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Coast United vs Rydalmere Lions

Central Coast United beat Rydalmere Lions 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.