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Central Coast United vs Northern Tigers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Central Coast United
Central Coast United
FT
0 – 4
Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers
2/25/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 4Central Coast Sports College Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Central Coast United22%
×Draw21%
Northern Tigers57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast United
1.25
Northern Tigers
2.10

Northern Tigers creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

creates per match

Central Coast United
1.07
Northern Tigers
1.73

allows per match

Central Coast United
2.47
Northern Tigers
1.42

finishing

Central Coast United+0.00on par
Northern Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast United ↓

Northern Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Central Coast United or draw
43%
Central Coast United or Northern Tigers
79%
Draw or Northern Tigers
78%

Winning margin

Central Coast United wins by 2+
9%
Northern Tigers wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Central Coast United 1+ goals
71%
Central Coast United 2+ goals
36%
Central Coast United 3+ goals
13%
Northern Tigers 1+ goals
88%
Northern Tigers 2+ goals
62%
Northern Tigers 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Central Coast United (draw refunded)
28%
Northern Tigers (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Northern Tigers away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast United attack 1.07 + Northern Tigers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Northern Tigers attack 1.73 + Central Coast United defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Central Coast United scores more
22%
level
21%
Northern Tigers scores more
57%

Northern Tigers at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Northern Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Central Coast United 0–4 Northern Tigers

Northern Tigers beat Central Coast United 4-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Central Coast Sports College Main Field in Kariong.