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Central Coast United vs Hills Brumbies — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Central Coast United
Central Coast United
FT
1 – 2
Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
5/27/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 17Mariners Centre of Excellence Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Central Coast United29%
×Draw22%
Hills Brumbies49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast United
1.47
Hills Brumbies
1.95

Hills Brumbies creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

Central Coast United
1.07
Hills Brumbies
1.43

allows per match

Central Coast United
2.47
Hills Brumbies
1.87

finishing

Central Coast United+0.00on par
Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast United ↓

Hills Brumbies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Central Coast United or draw
51%
Central Coast United or Hills Brumbies
78%
Draw or Hills Brumbies
71%

Winning margin

Central Coast United wins by 2+
13%
Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Central Coast United 1+ goals
77%
Central Coast United 2+ goals
43%
Central Coast United 3+ goals
18%
Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
86%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
58%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Central Coast United (draw refunded)
37%
Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Hills Brumbies away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.87 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast United attack 1.07 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hills Brumbies attack 1.43 + Central Coast United defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Central Coast United scores more
29%
level
22%
Hills Brumbies scores more
49%

Hills Brumbies at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hills Brumbies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Coast United vs Hills Brumbies

Hills Brumbies beat Central Coast United 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Mariners Centre of Excellence Complex in Tuggerah.