Central Coast United 4–1 Dulwich Hill

Central Coast United

FT

4 – 1

Dulwich Hill

2/18/2023

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 3Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Central Coast United34%

×Draw22%

Dulwich Hill44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast UnitedExpected goals in this matchDulwich Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.89

Central Coast United

1.65

Dulwich Hill

1.89

Dulwich Hill creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

1.07

creates per match

1.30

2.47

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Central Coast United

1.07

Dulwich Hill

1.30

allows per match

Central Coast United

2.47

Dulwich Hill

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast United+0.00on par

Dulwich Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast United ↓

Dulwich Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Central Coast United or draw

56%

Central Coast United or Dulwich Hill

78%

Draw or Dulwich Hill

66%

Winning margin

Central Coast United wins by 2+

17%

Dulwich Hill wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Central Coast United 1+ goals

81%

Central Coast United 2+ goals

49%

Central Coast United 3+ goals

23%

Dulwich Hill 1+ goals

85%

Dulwich Hill 2+ goals

56%

Dulwich Hill 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Central Coast United (draw refunded)

44%

Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Dulwich Hill away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.23 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast United attack 1.07 + Dulwich Hill defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dulwich Hill attack 1.30 + Central Coast United defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Central Coast United scores more

34%

level

22%

Dulwich Hill scores more

44%

Dulwich Hill at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dulwich Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff