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Central Coast United vs Bankstown City Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Central Coast United
Central Coast United
FT
1 – 1
Bankstown City Lions
Bankstown City Lions
3/18/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 7Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Central Coast United25%
×Draw22%
Bankstown City Lions53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast United
1.31
Bankstown City Lions
1.98

Bankstown City Lions creates 51% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

Central Coast United
1.07
Bankstown City Lions
1.49

allows per match

Central Coast United
2.47
Bankstown City Lions
1.54

finishing

Central Coast United+0.00on par
Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast United ↓

Bankstown City Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Central Coast United or draw
47%
Central Coast United or Bankstown City Lions
78%
Draw or Bankstown City Lions
75%

Winning margin

Central Coast United wins by 2+
11%
Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Central Coast United 1+ goals
73%
Central Coast United 2+ goals
38%
Central Coast United 3+ goals
14%
Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals
86%
Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals
59%
Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Central Coast United (draw refunded)
32%
Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Bankstown City Lions away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast United attack 1.07 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.49 + Central Coast United defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Central Coast United scores more
25%
level
22%
Bankstown City Lions scores more
53%

Bankstown City Lions at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bankstown City Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Central Coast United 1–1 Bankstown City Lions

Central Coast United and Bankstown City Lions drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.