Central Coast Mariners 0–4 Yokohama F. Marinos

Central Coast Mariners

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Yokohama F. Marinos

12/3/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 6Industree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Central Coast Mariners22%

×Draw21%

Yokohama F. Marinos56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast MarinersExpected goals in this matchYokohama F. Marinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.06

Central Coast Mariners

1.23

Yokohama F. Marinos

2.06

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

1.63

2.50

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners

1.00

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.63

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners

2.50

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw

44%

Central Coast Mariners or Yokohama F. Marinos

79%

Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos

78%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

9%

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

71%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

35%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

13%

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

87%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

61%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

29%

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.00 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.63 + Central Coast Mariners defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more

22%

level

21%

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

56%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff