Central Coast Mariners 0–3 Wellington Phoenix

Central Coast Mariners

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Wellington Phoenix

S. Sutton 53'

K. Barbarouses 38'

H. Ishige 15'

11/10/2024

A-League · Round 4Industree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Central Coast Mariners42%

×Draw24%

Wellington Phoenix34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast MarinersExpected goals in this matchWellington Phoenix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.45

Central Coast Mariners

1.64

Wellington Phoenix

1.45

Central Coast Mariners creates 13% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

1.55

creates per match

1.29

1.61

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners

1.55

Wellington Phoenix

1.29

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners

1.61

Wellington Phoenix

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Wellington Phoenix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw

66%

Central Coast Mariners or Wellington Phoenix

76%

Draw or Wellington Phoenix

58%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

21%

Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

81%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

49%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

23%

Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals

77%

Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals

42%

Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

55%

Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.73 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.55 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.29 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more

42%

level

24%

Wellington Phoenix scores more

34%

Central Coast Mariners at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Oluwayemi

Wellington Phoenix · G

9.5

Match Events

6'

Sasha Kuzevski

15'

H. Ishige

34'

Sam Sutton

38'

K. Barbarouses↳ H. Ishige

40'

Kazuki NagasawaGoal confirmed

45+2'

Alfie McCalmont

45'

Mikael Doka

46'

A. Kuol← Vitor Feijão

46'

S. Ngor← D. Herrington

53'

S. Sutton↳ H. Ishige

59'

Kazuki Nagasawa

60'

N. Walker← M. Sheridan

60'

M. Al Taay← P. Retre

67'

H. Eames← H. Steele

67'

B. Brandtman← R. Edmondson

69'

S. Colakovski← K. Barbarouses

83'

S. Roux← S. Kuzevski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralWellington

Overview

54%Possession46%

21Total Shots8

6Corners1

10Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots8

10On Target5

7Off Target1

4Blocked2

11Inside Box4

10Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

501Total Passes450

440Accurate Passes373

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

10Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1