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Central Coast Mariners vs Terengganu — AFC Cup 2018

Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Terengganu
Terengganu
M. Di Pizio 87'
Engku Nur Shakir 53'
11/29/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Industree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Central Coast Mariners71%
×Draw15%
Terengganu14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast Mariners
2.92
Terengganu
1.25

Central Coast Mariners creates 134% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners
4.50
Terengganu
1.67

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners
0.83
Terengganu
1.33

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par
Terengganu+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Terengganu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw
86%
Central Coast Mariners or Terengganu
85%
Draw or Terengganu
29%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
50%
Terengganu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
94%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
78%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
55%
Terengganu 1+ goals
71%
Terengganu 2+ goals
36%
Terengganu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
84%
Terengganu (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 4.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Terengganu away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 4.50 + Terengganu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Terengganu attack 1.67 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more
71%
level
15%
Terengganu scores more
14%

Central Coast Mariners at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
Suhaimi HusinTerengganuTerengganu · G
8.5

Match Events

53'
Engku Nur Shakir↳ S. Nordé
61'
C. Theoharous← W. Wilson
61'
M. Di Pizio← A. Kuol
68'
Mikael Doka← S. Roux
71'
Sardor Kulmatov
74'
Syahmi Zamri← Nor Hakim Hassan
80'
Zuasyraf Zulkiefle← Nik Sharif Haseefy
83'
J. Reec← M. Balard
87'
M. Di Pizio↳ C. Theoharous
89'
A. Redžović← S. Nordé
90+6'
Ivan Mamut

Possession

64%Central

Shots

22Central

Pass accuracy

54%Central

Statistics

CentralTerengganu
Overview
64%Possession36%
22Total Shots7
8Corners2
12Fouls8
Shots
22Total Shots7
8On Target4
11Off Target2
3Blocked1
18Inside Box2
4Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
519Total Passes303
457Accurate Passes228
88%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
12Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2

AFC Cup: Central Coast Mariners 1–1 Terengganu

Central Coast Mariners and Terengganu drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on November 29, 2023.

Goals: Engku Nur Shakir (53'), M. Di Pizio (87').

Central Coast Mariners controlled possession (64%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at Industree Group Stadium in Gosford.