Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Shanghai Shenhua

Central Coast Mariners

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

B. Brandtman 90+5'

S. Ngor 75'

Yu Hanchao 64'

André Luís 50'

11/5/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 4Industree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Central Coast Mariners32%

×Draw25%

Shanghai Shenhua43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast MarinersExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.58

Central Coast Mariners

1.33

Shanghai Shenhua

1.58

Shanghai Shenhua creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

2.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners

1.00

Shanghai Shenhua

0.67

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners

2.50

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw

57%

Central Coast Mariners or Shanghai Shenhua

75%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

68%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

14%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

74%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

38%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

15%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

79%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

47%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

43%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.00 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + Central Coast Mariners defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more

32%

level

25%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

43%

Shanghai Shenhua at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Mikael Doka

Central Coast Mariners · M

8.9

Match Events

2'

Brian Kaltack

5'

Yu Hanchao← Xie Pengfei

46'

Yang Zexiang← Wilson Manafá

50'

André Luís↳ Yu Hanchao

58'

B. Brandtman← Vitor Feijão

58'

A. Kuol← R. Edmondson

64'

Wu Xi← Xu Haoyang

64'

Yu Hanchao↳ Chan Shinichi

72'

H. Eames← D. Herrington

72'

S. Ngor← S. Kuzevski

75'

S. Ngor

79'

Aidi Fulangxisi← Chan Shinichi

80'

João Carlos Teixeira

82'

Liu Chengyu← André Luís

85'

W. Wilson← A. McCalmont

90+5'

B. Brandtman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralShanghai

Overview

50%Possession50%

17Total Shots10

6Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target2

5Off Target3

6Blocked5

14Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

476Total Passes484

417Accurate Passes416

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1