Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Buriram United

Central Coast Mariners

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Buriram United

10/1/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 2Industree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Central Coast Mariners31%

×Draw25%

Buriram United45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast MarinersExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.59

Central Coast Mariners

1.27

Buriram United

1.59

Buriram United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

0.68

2.50

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners

1.00

Buriram United

0.68

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners

2.50

Buriram United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Buriram United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw

55%

Central Coast Mariners or Buriram United

75%

Draw or Buriram United

69%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

13%

Buriram United wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

72%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

36%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

14%

Buriram United 1+ goals

80%

Buriram United 2+ goals

47%

Buriram United 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

41%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Buriram United away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.00 + Buriram United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Buriram United attack 0.68 + Central Coast Mariners defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more

31%

level

25%

Buriram United scores more

45%

Buriram United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff