Central Coast Mariners 6–3 Bali United

Central Coast Mariners

FT

6 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Bali United

J. Farrell 67', 24'

K. Arel 54' (OG)

C. Theoharous 50'

Marco Túlio 37' (pen), 34' (pen)

Jefferson 83'

P. Mbarga 47'

J. Warshawsky 17' (OG)

10/26/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Industree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Central Coast Mariners79%

×Draw12%

Bali United9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast MarinersExpected goals in this matchBali United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.50

1.17

Central Coast Mariners

3.50

Bali United

1.17

Central Coast Mariners creates 199% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

4.50

creates per match

1.50

0.83

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners

4.50

Bali United

1.50

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners

0.83

Bali United

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Bali United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Bali United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw

91%

Central Coast Mariners or Bali United

88%

Draw or Bali United

21%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

61%

Bali United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

97%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

85%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

66%

Bali United 1+ goals

69%

Bali United 2+ goals

33%

Bali United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

90%

Bali United (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 4.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Bali United away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 4.50 + Bali United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.50

Bali United attack 1.50 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more

79%

level

12%

Bali United scores more

9%

Central Coast Mariners at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Farrell

Central Coast Mariners · D

9.7

Match Events

17'

J. WarshawskyOwn goal

24'

J. Farrell↳ J. Nisbet

34'

Marco TúlioPenalty

36'

Mohammed Rashid

37'

Marco TúlioPenalty

46'

S. Roux← Mikael Doka

46'

K. Agung← Mohammed Rashid

47'

P. Mbarga↳ Y. Roni

50'

C. Theoharous↳ Marco Túlio

54'

Éber Bessa

54'

K. ArelOwn goal

58'

M. Rahmat← Y. Roni

60'

Christian Theoharous

62'

H. Steele← J. Nisbet

62'

W. Wilson← C. Theoharous

67'

J. Farrell↳ Á. Torres

69'

M. Di Pizio← Á. Torres

73'

R. Lestaluhu← A. Idrus

80'

83'

87'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralBali

Overview

65%Possession35%

27Total Shots5

10Corners0

13Fouls8

Shots

27Total Shots5

8On Target2

12Off Target2

7Blocked1

18Inside Box3

9Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

575Total Passes317

517Accurate Passes239

90%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1