Central Coast Mariners FC 2–8 Wellington Phoenix

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast Mariners FCExpected goals in this matchWellington Phoenix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.45

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.64

Wellington Phoenix

1.45

Central Coast Mariners FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

1.55

creates per match

1.29

1.61

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.55

Wellington Phoenix

1.29

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.61

Wellington Phoenix

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners FC ↓

Wellington Phoenix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners FC or draw

66%

Central Coast Mariners FC or Wellington Phoenix

76%

Draw or Wellington Phoenix

58%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+

21%

Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals

81%

Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals

49%

Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals

23%

Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals

77%

Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals

42%

Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)

55%

Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.73 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.55 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.29 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more

42%

level

24%

Wellington Phoenix scores more

34%

Central Coast Mariners FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

S. Singh

Wellington Phoenix · F

9.9

Match Events

8'

S. GrahamOwn goal

12'

R. Krishna↳ A. Golec

21'

D. Williams↳ S. Singh

23'

33'

34'

36'

41'

45+1'

51'

L. Cacace↳ R. Krishna

53'

C. M'Mombwa← M. McGlinchey

54'

Jacob Melling

57'

S. Singh↳ Mandi

59'

L. Miller← M. Millar

59'

L. Fenton↳ S. Singh

61'

J. Clisby↳ S. Mallon

66'

C. Elliott← L. Fenton

69'

S. Mallon

77'

P. Kekeris← J. Nisbet

80'

C. Sheridan← D. Williams

87'

G. Stensness← Mandi

88'

S. Singh↳ C. Sheridan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralWellington

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots22

2Corners7

15Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots22

7On Target13

2Off Target3

4Blocked6

6Inside Box16

7Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

357Total Passes475

284Accurate Passes384

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1