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Central Coast Mariners FC vs Melbourne City — A-League 2018

Central Coast Mariners FC
Central Coast Mariners FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
M. Simon 89'
C. Pain 32'
L. Wales 77'
1/16/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 12Bluetongue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Central Coast Mariners FC36%
×Draw24%
Melbourne City40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast Mariners FC
1.50
Melbourne City
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 108 away

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners FC
1.55
Melbourne City
1.56

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners FC
1.61
Melbourne City
1.45

finishing

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners FC ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners FC or draw
60%
Central Coast Mariners FC or Melbourne City
76%
Draw or Melbourne City
64%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+
17%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals
78%
Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals
44%
Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals
19%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
79%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
47%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)
48%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.45 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.55 + Melbourne City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melbourne City attack 1.56 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more
36%
level
24%
Melbourne City scores more
40%

Melbourne City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
C. PainCentral Coast Mariners FCCentral Coast Mariners FC · M
7.7

Match Events

22'
L. Wales← O. Malik
32'
C. Pain↳ M. Millar
40'
Ritchie De Laet
45'
Aiden O'Neill
51'
Jonathan Aspropotamitis
53'
Thomas Oar
54'
J. Murray← T. Oar
67'
F. Berenguer← R. McGree
74'
R. Najjarine← L. Brattan
76'
M. McGlinchey← T. Hiariej
77'
L. Wales↳ F. Berenguer
79'
M. Shabow← A. Hoole
80'
Florin Berenguer
89'
M. Simon

Possession

36%Central

Shots

9Central

Pass accuracy

46%Central

Statistics

CentralMelbourne
Overview
36%Possession64%
9Total Shots21
1Corners10
11Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots21
4On Target4
4Off Target8
1Blocked9
8Inside Box12
1Outside Box9
Passing
36%Possession64%
289Total Passes487
187Accurate Passes377
65%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
4Offsides3

A-League: Central Coast Mariners FC 2–1 Melbourne City

Central Coast Mariners FC beat Melbourne City 2-1 in A-League on January 16, 2019.

Goals: C. Pain (32'), L. Wales (77'), M. Simon (89').

Melbourne City controlled possession (64%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Bluetongue Stadium in Gosford.