Central Coast Mariners FC 0–1 Adelaide United

Central Coast Mariners FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Adelaide United

Isaías 35'

3/31/2019

A-League · Round 23Bluetongue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Central Coast Mariners FC39%

×Draw23%

Adelaide United37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast Mariners FCExpected goals in this matchAdelaide United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.62

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.67

Adelaide United

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

1.55

creates per match

1.62

1.61

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.55

Adelaide United

1.62

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.61

Adelaide United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Adelaide United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners FC ↓

Adelaide United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners FC or draw

63%

Central Coast Mariners FC or Adelaide United

77%

Draw or Adelaide United

61%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+

20%

Adelaide United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals

81%

Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals

50%

Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals

23%

Adelaide United 1+ goals

80%

Adelaide United 2+ goals

48%

Adelaide United 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)

51%

Adelaide United (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Adelaide United away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.78 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.55 + Adelaide United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Adelaide United attack 1.62 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more

39%

level

23%

Adelaide United scores more

37%

Central Coast Mariners FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Jakobsen

Adelaide United · D

7.7

Match Events

17'

B. Halloran← R. Strain

34'

35'

52'

59'

68'

72'

72'

74'

J. Thomassen← G. Blackwood

80'

M. McGlinchey← A. ONeill

90'

Kye Rowles

90'

V. Lia← C. Goodwin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralAdelaide

Overview

31%Possession69%

10Total Shots11

3Corners3

16Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target4

5Off Target6

2Blocked1

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

262Total Passes577

176Accurate Passes480

67%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards–

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Central Coast Mariners FC vs Adelaide United

Adelaide United beat Central Coast Mariners FC 1-0 in A-League on March 31, 2019.

Goals: Isaías (35').

Adelaide United controlled possession (69%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Bluetongue Stadium in Gosford.

Central Coast Mariners FC vs Adelaide United — A-League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Central Coast Mariners FC vs Adelaide United