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Adelaide United vs Central Coast Mariners — A-League 2018

Adelaide United
Adelaide United
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
1/4/2026A-LeagueA-League · Round 11Coopers Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Adelaide United44%
×Draw23%
Central Coast Mariners33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide United
1.71
Central Coast Mariners
1.45

Adelaide United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 109 away

creates per match

Adelaide United
1.77
Central Coast Mariners
1.42

allows per match

Adelaide United
1.48
Central Coast Mariners
1.65

finishing

Adelaide United+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide United ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Adelaide United or draw
67%
Adelaide United or Central Coast Mariners
77%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
56%

Winning margin

Adelaide United wins by 2+
23%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Adelaide United 1+ goals
82%
Adelaide United 2+ goals
51%
Adelaide United 3+ goals
24%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
77%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
42%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Adelaide United (draw refunded)
57%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.48 · 111 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide United attack 1.77 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.42 + Adelaide United defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Adelaide United scores more
44%
level
23%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
33%

Adelaide United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Adelaide United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Adelaide United 0–4 Central Coast Mariners

Central Coast Mariners beat Adelaide United 4-0 in A-League on January 4, 2026.

The match was played at Coopers Stadium in Adelaide.