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Central Coast Mariners FC vs Adelaide United — A-League 2018

Central Coast Mariners FC
Central Coast Mariners FC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Adelaide United
Adelaide United
C. Goodwin 56', 9'
A. Stamatelopoulos 16'
11/4/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 3Bluetongue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Central Coast Mariners FC39%
×Draw23%
Adelaide United37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast Mariners FC
1.67
Adelaide United
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners FC
1.55
Adelaide United
1.62

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners FC
1.61
Adelaide United
1.78

finishing

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par
Adelaide United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners FC ↓

Adelaide United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners FC or draw
63%
Central Coast Mariners FC or Adelaide United
77%
Draw or Adelaide United
61%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+
20%
Adelaide United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals
81%
Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals
50%
Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals
23%
Adelaide United 1+ goals
80%
Adelaide United 2+ goals
48%
Adelaide United 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)
51%
Adelaide United (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Adelaide United away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.78 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.55 + Adelaide United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Adelaide United attack 1.62 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more
39%
level
23%
Adelaide United scores more
37%

Central Coast Mariners FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
C. GoodwinAdelaide UnitedAdelaide United · M
10.0

Match Events

9'
C. Goodwin↳ A. Stamatelopoulos
16'
A. Stamatelopoulos↳ C. Goodwin
37'
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos
46'
A. Hoole← T. Hiariej
55'
Aiden O'Neill
56'
C. Goodwin
61'
Matt Simon
62'
C. Pain← R. McCormack
65'
R. Kitto← K. Ilsø
72'
M. Millar← M. McGlinchey
72'
N. Mileusnic← A. Stamatelopoulos
83'
R. Strain← C. Goodwin

Possession

51%Central

Shots

12Central

Pass accuracy

50%Central

Statistics

CentralAdelaide
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots12
8Corners1
17Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots12
2On Target6
5Off Target3
5Blocked3
9Inside Box9
3Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
426Total Passes420
328Accurate Passes327
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides5

A-League: Central Coast Mariners FC 0–3 Adelaide United

Adelaide United beat Central Coast Mariners FC 3-0 in A-League on November 4, 2018.

Goals: C. Goodwin (9', 56'), A. Stamatelopoulos (16').

Central Coast Mariners FC controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Bluetongue Stadium in Gosford.