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Central Coast II vs Sydney Olympic — New South Wales NPL 2026

Central Coast II
Central Coast II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sydney Olympic
Sydney Olympic
R. O'Donovan 40'
C. Deng 16' (OG)
4/7/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 9Valentine Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Central Coast II34%
×Draw23%
Sydney Olympic42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast II
1.50
Sydney Olympic
1.69

Sydney Olympic creates 13% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 97 away

creates per match

Central Coast II
1.53
Sydney Olympic
1.55

allows per match

Central Coast II
1.83
Sydney Olympic
1.47

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par
Sydney Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

Sydney Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw
58%
Central Coast II or Sydney Olympic
77%
Draw or Sydney Olympic
66%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+
16%
Sydney Olympic wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals
78%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
44%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
19%
Sydney Olympic 1+ goals
82%
Sydney Olympic 2+ goals
50%
Sydney Olympic 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)
45%
Sydney Olympic (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

Sydney Olympic away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.47 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 1.53 + Sydney Olympic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sydney Olympic attack 1.55 + Central Coast II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Central Coast II scores more
34%
level
23%
Sydney Olympic scores more
42%

Sydney Olympic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sydney Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
C. DengOwn goal
40'
R. O'Donovan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Coast II 0 – 2 Sydney Olympic

Sydney Olympic beat Central Coast II 2-0 in New South Wales NPL on April 7, 2024.

Goals: C. Deng (16' o.g.), R. O'Donovan (40').

The match was played at Valentine Sports Park in Glenwood.