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Central Coast II vs Mounties Wanderers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Central Coast II
Central Coast II
FT
2 – 1
Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
3/27/2022New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 3Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Central Coast II58%
×Draw20%
Mounties Wanderers22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast II
2.21
Mounties Wanderers
1.31

Central Coast II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 50 away

creates per match

Central Coast II
2.34
Mounties Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

Central Coast II
1.38
Mounties Wanderers
2.08

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par
Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

Mounties Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw
78%
Central Coast II or Mounties Wanderers
80%
Draw or Mounties Wanderers
42%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+
35%
Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals
89%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
65%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
38%
Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
73%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
38%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)
72%
Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 2.34 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.21

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + Central Coast II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Central Coast II scores more
58%
level
20%
Mounties Wanderers scores more
22%

Central Coast II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Central Coast II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Coast II vs Mounties Wanderers

Central Coast II beat Mounties Wanderers 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.