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Central Coast II vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Central Coast II
Central Coast II
FT
2 – 0
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
6/5/2022New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 13Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Central Coast II56%
×Draw21%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast II
2.16
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.34

Central Coast II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 62 away

creates per match

Central Coast II
2.34
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

Central Coast II
1.38
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw
77%
Central Coast II or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
79%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
44%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+
34%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals
88%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
63%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
36%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
74%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
39%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)
70%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 2.34 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.16

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Central Coast II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Central Coast II scores more
56%
level
21%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
23%

Central Coast II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Central Coast II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Coast II vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Central Coast II beat Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.