CA Bastia 1–2 Nancy: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

CA Bastia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nancy

J. Grimaldi 49'

B. Moukandjo 62' (pen)

B. Jeannot 33'

8/10/2013

Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Armand Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CA Bastia31%

×Draw28%

Nancy41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA BastiaExpected goals in this matchNancy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.27

CA Bastia

1.06

Nancy

1.27

Nancy creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 154 away

0.79

creates per match

1.01

1.53

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

CA Bastia

0.79

Nancy

1.01

allows per match

CA Bastia

1.53

Nancy

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Bastia+0.00on par

Nancy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bastia ↓

Nancy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CA Bastia or draw

59%

CA Bastia or Nancy

72%

Draw or Nancy

69%

Winning margin

CA Bastia wins by 2+

12%

Nancy wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

CA Bastia 1+ goals

65%

CA Bastia 2+ goals

29%

CA Bastia 3+ goals

9%

Nancy 1+ goals

72%

Nancy 2+ goals

36%

Nancy 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CA Bastia (draw refunded)

43%

Nancy (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bastia at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Nancy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.34 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bastia attack 0.79 + Nancy defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nancy attack 1.01 + CA Bastia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CA Bastia scores more

31%

level

28%

Nancy scores more

41%

Nancy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nancy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

B. Jeannot

46'

R. Grange← Y. Mollo

49'

J. Grimaldi

62'

B. MoukandjoPenalty

63'

M. Moretti← C. Vincent

68'

A. Cropanese← R. Romey

81'

N. Di Fraya← A. Salis

CA

Nancy

16

26

5

3

14

19

27

33

8

▼

Mollo

11

⚽

Moukandjo

9

⚽

1

23

15

26

▼

Romey

25

▼

Salis

4

Monfray

10

⚽

Grimaldi

6

Marty

19

N'Diaye

17

▼

Vincent

18

Pastorell

63'▲M. Moretti←▼C. Vincent

68'▲A. Cropanese←▼R. Romey

81'▲N. Di Fraya←▼A. Salis

CA Bastia substitutes

20Moretti9Cropanese22Fraya16Philippon27Phojo

46'▲R. Grange←▼Y. Mollo

Nancy substitutes

29Grange15Rachid17Zitte20Amadou30Nardi