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Central Ballester vs Juventud Unida — Primera C 2026

Central Ballester
Central Ballester
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
7/7/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 1Estadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Central Ballester37%
×Draw32%
Juventud Unida31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Ballester
0.99
Juventud Unida
0.87

Central Ballester creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

creates per match

Central Ballester
0.88
Juventud Unida
0.76

allows per match

Central Ballester
0.98
Juventud Unida
1.09

finishing

Central Ballester+0.00on par
Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Ballester ↓

Juventud Unida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Central Ballester or draw
69%
Central Ballester or Juventud Unida
68%
Draw or Juventud Unida
63%

Winning margin

Central Ballester wins by 2+
14%
Juventud Unida wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Central Ballester 1+ goals
63%
Central Ballester 2+ goals
26%
Central Ballester 3+ goals
8%
Juventud Unida 1+ goals
58%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
22%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Central Ballester (draw refunded)
55%
Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Ballester at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Juventud Unida away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Ballester attack 0.88 + Juventud Unida defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Juventud Unida attack 0.76 + Central Ballester defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Central Ballester scores more
37%
level
32%
Juventud Unida scores more
31%

Central Ballester at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Central Ballester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Ballester vs Juventud Unida

Central Ballester beat Juventud Unida 2-1 in Primera C on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Caseros in Caseros, Provincia de Buenos Aires.