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Central Ballester vs Claypole — Primera C 2026

Central Ballester
Central Ballester
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Claypole
Claypole
9/29/2025Primera CPrimera C · Promotion Play-offs - 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Central Ballester34%
×Draw32%
Claypole35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Ballester
0.95
Claypole
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 106 away

creates per match

Central Ballester
0.88
Claypole
0.96

allows per match

Central Ballester
0.98
Claypole
1.01

finishing

Central Ballester+0.00on par
Claypole+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Ballester ↓

Claypole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Central Ballester or draw
65%
Central Ballester or Claypole
68%
Draw or Claypole
66%

Winning margin

Central Ballester wins by 2+
12%
Claypole wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Central Ballester 1+ goals
61%
Central Ballester 2+ goals
25%
Central Ballester 3+ goals
7%
Claypole 1+ goals
62%
Claypole 2+ goals
25%
Claypole 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Central Ballester (draw refunded)
49%
Claypole (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Ballester at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Claypole away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Ballester attack 0.88 + Claypole defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Claypole attack 0.96 + Central Ballester defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Central Ballester scores more
34%
level
32%
Claypole scores more
35%

Claypole at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Claypole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Ballester vs Claypole

Claypole beat Central Ballester 3-1 in Primera C on September 29, 2025.