Central African Republic 1–1 Togo: Result & Stats

Central African Republic

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Togo

G. Koyalipou 26'

K. Denkey 60'

6/5/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalStade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Central African Republic62%

×Draw23%

Togo15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central African RepublicExpected goals in this matchTogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.75

Central African Republic

1.80

Togo

0.75

Central African Republic creates 140% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

2.40

creates per match

1.30

0.20

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Central African Republic

2.40

Togo

1.30

allows per match

Central African Republic

0.20

Togo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central African Republic+0.00on par

Togo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central African Republic ↓

Togo →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Central African Republic or draw

85%

Central African Republic or Togo

77%

Draw or Togo

38%

Winning margin

Central African Republic wins by 2+

36%

Togo wins by 2+

Team goals

Central African Republic 1+ goals

83%

Central African Republic 2+ goals

54%

Central African Republic 3+ goals

27%

Togo 1+ goals

53%

Togo 2+ goals

17%

Togo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Central African Republic (draw refunded)

80%

Togo (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Central African Republic at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Togo away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Central African Republic attack 2.40 + Togo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.80

Togo attack 1.30 + Central African Republic defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Central African Republic scores more

62%

level

23%

Togo scores more

15%

Central African Republic at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Central African Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

G. Koyalipou↳ J. Sambia

60'

K. Denkey↳ D. Karim

Central

Togo

⚽

⚽

Manager: Eloge Enza-Yamissi

Central African Republic substitutes

Ato-ZandangaTatolnaZoumaYangaoDjimetBaboulaNamngandaKomesseMounguideKolimbaFourdeauGanazoui

Togo substitutes

MensahYayaMensahSankoutchaKpelafiaAkakpoDjibrilAkuesonKomlaviAgnoBomaSana