Central African Republic 4–0 Papua New Guinea

Central African Republic

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Papua New Guinea

3/25/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Race Course International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Central African Republic72%

×Draw19%

Papua New Guinea10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central African RepublicExpected goals in this matchPapua New Guinea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.60

Central African Republic

2.08

Papua New Guinea

0.60

Central African Republic creates 247% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.40

creates per match

1.00

0.20

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Central African Republic

2.40

Papua New Guinea

1.00

allows per match

Central African Republic

0.20

Papua New Guinea

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central African Republic+0.00on par

Papua New Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central African Republic ↓

Papua New Guinea →

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Central African Republic or draw

90%

Central African Republic or Papua New Guinea

81%

Draw or Papua New Guinea

28%

Winning margin

Central African Republic wins by 2+

47%

Papua New Guinea wins by 2+

Team goals

Central African Republic 1+ goals

87%

Central African Republic 2+ goals

61%

Central African Republic 3+ goals

34%

Papua New Guinea 1+ goals

45%

Papua New Guinea 2+ goals

12%

Papua New Guinea 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Central African Republic (draw refunded)

88%

Papua New Guinea (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Central African Republic at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Papua New Guinea away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Central African Republic attack 2.40 + Papua New Guinea defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.08

Papua New Guinea attack 1.00 + Central African Republic defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Central African Republic scores more

72%

level

19%

Papua New Guinea scores more

10%

Central African Republic at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Central African Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff