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Central African Republic vs Bhutan — Friendlies 2026

Central African Republic
Central African Republic
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bhutan
Bhutan
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Race Course International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Central African Republic91%
×Draw7%
Bhutan2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central African Republic
3.09
Bhutan
0.27

Central African Republic creates 1044% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Central African Republic
2.40
Bhutan
0.33

allows per match

Central African Republic
0.20
Bhutan
3.78

finishing

Central African Republic+0.00on par
Bhutan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central African Republic ↓

Bhutan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–13%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–018%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (18%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Central African Republic or draw
98%
Central African Republic or Bhutan
93%
Draw or Bhutan
9%

Winning margin

Central African Republic wins by 2+
75%
Bhutan wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Central African Republic 1+ goals
95%
Central African Republic 2+ goals
81%
Central African Republic 3+ goals
58%
Bhutan 1+ goals
24%
Bhutan 2+ goals
3%
Bhutan 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Central African Republic (draw refunded)
98%
Bhutan (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central African Republic at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Bhutan away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central African Republic attack 2.40 + Bhutan defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 3.09

Bhutan attack 0.33 + Central African Republic defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Central African Republic scores more
91%
level
7%
Bhutan scores more
2%

Central African Republic at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Central African Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central African Republic vs Bhutan

Central African Republic beat Bhutan 6-0 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Race Course International Stadium in Colombo.