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Cenicero vs Vianés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Cenicero
Cenicero
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Vianés
Vianés
10/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 6Estadio de Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cenicero23%
×Draw24%
Vianés53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cenicero
1.05
Vianés
1.70

Vianés creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Cenicero
0.40
Vianés
1.12

allows per match

Cenicero
2.27
Vianés
1.71

finishing

Cenicero+0.00on par
Vianés+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cenicero ↓

Vianés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cenicero or draw
47%
Cenicero or Vianés
76%
Draw or Vianés
77%

Winning margin

Cenicero wins by 2+
9%
Vianés wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Cenicero 1+ goals
65%
Cenicero 2+ goals
28%
Cenicero 3+ goals
9%
Vianés 1+ goals
82%
Vianés 2+ goals
51%
Vianés 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Cenicero (draw refunded)
31%
Vianés (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cenicero at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Vianés away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.71 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cenicero attack 0.40 + Vianés defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Vianés attack 1.12 + Cenicero defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cenicero scores more
23%
level
24%
Vianés scores more
53%

Vianés at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vianés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cenicero vs Vianés

Vianés beat Cenicero 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Las Viñas in Cenicero.