Cenicero 0–1 Varea: Result & Stats

Cenicero

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Varea

5/1/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 30Estadio de Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cenicero12%

×Draw20%

Varea69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeniceroExpected goals in this matchVarea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

2.04

Cenicero

0.69

Varea

2.04

Varea creates 196% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 108 away

0.40

creates per match

1.81

2.27

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Cenicero

0.40

Varea

1.81

allows per match

Cenicero

2.27

Varea

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cenicero+0.00on par

Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cenicero ↓

Varea →

0–07%

0–113%

0–214%

0–39%

0–45%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cenicero or draw

31%

Cenicero or Varea

80%

Draw or Varea

88%

Winning margin

Cenicero wins by 2+

Varea wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Cenicero 1+ goals

50%

Cenicero 2+ goals

15%

Cenicero 3+ goals

Varea 1+ goals

87%

Varea 2+ goals

60%

Varea 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Cenicero (draw refunded)

14%

Varea (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cenicero at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cenicero attack 0.40 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.69

Varea attack 1.81 + Cenicero defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cenicero scores more

12%

level

20%

Varea scores more

69%

Varea at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff