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Cenicero vs Calahorra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Cenicero
Cenicero
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Calahorra II
Calahorra II
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Estadio de Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cenicero16%
×Draw22%
Calahorra II63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cenicero
0.81
Calahorra II
1.88

Calahorra II creates 132% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

creates per match

Cenicero
0.40
Calahorra II
1.48

allows per match

Cenicero
2.27
Calahorra II
1.23

finishing

Cenicero+0.00on par
Calahorra II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cenicero ↓

Calahorra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cenicero or draw
37%
Cenicero or Calahorra II
78%
Draw or Calahorra II
84%

Winning margin

Cenicero wins by 2+
5%
Calahorra II wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Cenicero 1+ goals
56%
Cenicero 2+ goals
19%
Cenicero 3+ goals
5%
Calahorra II 1+ goals
85%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
56%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Cenicero (draw refunded)
20%
Calahorra II (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cenicero at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Calahorra II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cenicero attack 0.40 + Calahorra II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.81

Calahorra II attack 1.48 + Cenicero defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cenicero scores more
16%
level
22%
Calahorra II scores more
63%

Calahorra II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cenicero vs Calahorra II

Calahorra II beat Cenicero 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio de Las Viñas in Cenicero.