Cenicero 0–5 Anguiano: Result & Stats

Cenicero

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Anguiano

10/30/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio de Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cenicero13%

×Draw21%

Anguiano67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeniceroExpected goals in this matchAnguiano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

1.96

Cenicero

0.71

Anguiano

1.96

Anguiano creates 176% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

0.40

creates per match

1.66

2.27

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Cenicero

0.40

Anguiano

1.66

allows per match

Cenicero

2.27

Anguiano

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cenicero+0.00on par

Anguiano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cenicero ↓

Anguiano →

0–07%

0–114%

0–213%

0–39%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cenicero or draw

33%

Cenicero or Anguiano

79%

Draw or Anguiano

87%

Winning margin

Cenicero wins by 2+

Anguiano wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Cenicero 1+ goals

51%

Cenicero 2+ goals

16%

Cenicero 3+ goals

Anguiano 1+ goals

86%

Anguiano 2+ goals

58%

Anguiano 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Cenicero (draw refunded)

16%

Anguiano (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cenicero at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Anguiano away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.01 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cenicero attack 0.40 + Anguiano defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.71

Anguiano attack 1.66 + Cenicero defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cenicero scores more

13%

level

21%

Anguiano scores more

67%

Anguiano at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff