Cenicero 1–5 Alfaro: Result & Stats

Cenicero

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Alfaro

10/3/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio de Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cenicero13%

×Draw20%

Alfaro67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeniceroExpected goals in this matchAlfaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

2.04

Cenicero

0.77

Alfaro

2.04

Alfaro creates 165% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 59 away

0.40

creates per match

1.80

2.27

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Cenicero

0.40

Alfaro

1.80

allows per match

Cenicero

2.27

Alfaro

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cenicero+0.00on par

Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cenicero ↓

Alfaro →

0–06%

0–112%

0–213%

0–39%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cenicero or draw

33%

Cenicero or Alfaro

80%

Draw or Alfaro

87%

Winning margin

Cenicero wins by 2+

Alfaro wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Cenicero 1+ goals

54%

Cenicero 2+ goals

18%

Cenicero 3+ goals

Alfaro 1+ goals

87%

Alfaro 2+ goals

60%

Alfaro 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Cenicero (draw refunded)

16%

Alfaro (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cenicero at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cenicero attack 0.40 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.77

Alfaro attack 1.80 + Cenicero defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cenicero scores more

13%

level

20%

Alfaro scores more

67%

Alfaro at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff