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Cenicero vs Agoncillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Cenicero
Cenicero
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Agoncillo
Agoncillo
2/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 20Estadio de Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cenicero20%
×Draw24%
Agoncillo56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cenicero
0.92
Agoncillo
1.73

Agoncillo creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Cenicero
0.40
Agoncillo
1.18

allows per match

Cenicero
2.27
Agoncillo
1.43

finishing

Cenicero+0.00on par
Agoncillo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cenicero ↓

Agoncillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cenicero or draw
44%
Cenicero or Agoncillo
76%
Draw or Agoncillo
80%

Winning margin

Cenicero wins by 2+
7%
Agoncillo wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Cenicero 1+ goals
60%
Cenicero 2+ goals
23%
Cenicero 3+ goals
7%
Agoncillo 1+ goals
82%
Agoncillo 2+ goals
52%
Agoncillo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Cenicero (draw refunded)
26%
Agoncillo (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cenicero at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Agoncillo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cenicero attack 0.40 + Agoncillo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.92

Agoncillo attack 1.18 + Cenicero defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cenicero scores more
20%
level
24%
Agoncillo scores more
56%

Agoncillo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Agoncillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Cenicero 1–3 Agoncillo

Agoncillo beat Cenicero 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio de Las Viñas in Cenicero.