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Celtiga vs Noia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celtiga
Celtiga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Noia
Noia
12/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Estadio Salvador Otero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Celtiga49%
×Draw25%
Noia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celtiga
1.60
Noia
1.10

Celtiga creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 50 away

creates per match

Celtiga
1.71
Noia
0.92

allows per match

Celtiga
1.29
Noia
1.50

finishing

Celtiga+0.00on par
Noia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtiga ↓

Noia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Celtiga or draw
74%
Celtiga or Noia
75%
Draw or Noia
51%

Winning margin

Celtiga wins by 2+
25%
Noia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Celtiga 1+ goals
80%
Celtiga 2+ goals
47%
Celtiga 3+ goals
22%
Noia 1+ goals
67%
Noia 2+ goals
30%
Noia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Celtiga (draw refunded)
65%
Noia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtiga at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Noia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtiga attack 1.71 + Noia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Noia attack 0.92 + Celtiga defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Celtiga scores more
49%
level
25%
Noia scores more
26%

Celtiga at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Celtiga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Celtiga 1 – 0 Noia

Celtiga beat Noia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Salvador Otero in A Illa de Arousa.