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Celtiga vs Estradense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celtiga
Celtiga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Estradense
Estradense
2/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Estadio Salvador Otero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Celtiga44%
×Draw25%
Estradense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celtiga
1.55
Estradense
1.27

Celtiga creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Celtiga
1.71
Estradense
1.24

allows per match

Celtiga
1.29
Estradense
1.39

finishing

Celtiga+0.00on par
Estradense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtiga ↓

Estradense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Celtiga or draw
69%
Celtiga or Estradense
75%
Draw or Estradense
56%

Winning margin

Celtiga wins by 2+
22%
Estradense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Celtiga 1+ goals
79%
Celtiga 2+ goals
46%
Celtiga 3+ goals
20%
Estradense 1+ goals
72%
Estradense 2+ goals
36%
Estradense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Celtiga (draw refunded)
58%
Estradense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtiga at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Estradense away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtiga attack 1.71 + Estradense defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.55

Estradense attack 1.24 + Celtiga defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Celtiga scores more
44%
level
25%
Estradense scores more
31%

Celtiga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Celtiga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celtiga vs Estradense

Celtiga beat Estradense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Salvador Otero in A Illa de Arousa.