Celtic 2–1 Sturm Graz: Result & Stats

Celtic

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sturm Graz

B. Nygren 64'

L. Scales 61'

T. Horvat 15'

10/23/2025

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Celtic59%

×Draw21%

Sturm Graz20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelticExpected goals in this matchSturm Graz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.11

Celtic

2.04

Sturm Graz

1.11

Celtic creates 84% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

1.70

creates per match

0.62

1.61

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Celtic

1.70

Sturm Graz

0.62

allows per match

Celtic

1.61

Sturm Graz

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celtic+0.00on par

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Sturm Graz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Celtic or draw

80%

Celtic or Sturm Graz

79%

Draw or Sturm Graz

41%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+

35%

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals

87%

Celtic 2+ goals

60%

Celtic 3+ goals

33%

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

67%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

30%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)

74%

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 1.70 + Sturm Graz defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sturm Graz attack 0.62 + Celtic defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Celtic scores more

59%

level

21%

Sturm Graz scores more

20%

Celtic at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Kenny← K. Iheanacho

15'

T. Horvat↳ F. Rozga

26'

C. Donovan← A. Johnston

46'

J. Mitchell← T. Oermann

56'

Jon Gorenc Stanković

58'

Cameron Carter-Vickers

59'

S. Jatta← M. Malone

59'

J. Hodl← F. Rozga

61'

L. Scales↳ C. Donovan

64'

B. Nygren↳ A. Engels

70'

Tochi Chukwuani

78'

M. Balikwisha← S. Tounekti

78'

L. Grgic← O. Kiteishvili

82'

A. Kayombo← T. Horvat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CelticSturm

Overview

66%Possession34%

20Total Shots8

4.02Expected Goals (xG)0.46

9Corners2

16Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots8

7On Target1

8Off Target7

5Blocked0

18Inside Box3

2Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

603Total Passes311

520Accurate Passes220

86%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.86Goals Prevented0.86

Discipline

16Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides7